Photo : Ukrainian Ministry of Defence
21 January 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #104
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
The Ukraine Crisis: Challenges and Ambitions
What happened?
On 10 January, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg invited Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olga Stefanishyna, to NATO Headquarters. The minister was called to discuss ahead of bilateral talks between the United States and Russia and attend the NATO-Russia Council meetings on 12 January and a meeting of the OSCE on 13 January.
On 19 January, the US secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv to meet Ukraine’s President and discussed the viewpoint of the US in dealing with a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine. According to the statement: “As much as we are all focused on Ukraine and our own commitment to its sovereignty, to its territorial integrity, to its independence, I think you all know very well that this is in a sense bigger than Ukraine.”
On 21 January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to the US President’s Joe Biden comments on how a minor attack by Russia might weaken the response of the US. Zelensky tweeted back, saying: “There are no minor incursions. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones.”
Challenges
First, there is no room for voice in dialogues. In the continuous discussions held between the US, the NATO, and Russia over the developing conflict, it was only once Ukraine was allowed to engage directly, which was during the OSCE meeting held on 13 January. Apart from that, the country has wholly side-lined from voicing its problems or negotiating with Russia.
Second, the confusing stance of the US. When it comes to dealing with Russia in the forefront, the position of the US is not promising for Ukraine in two ways. One, Ukraine does not approve the sanction plans of the US on Russia over the invasion. According to Ukraine, imposing sanctions cannot solve a military incursion. Two, Biden’s denial to send ground troops to Ukraine has glitched the confidence of Ukraine in the US.
Third, internal issues. One, the population resists. Ukraine consists of a majority of Russian-speaking people. Even after the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, few of them still have a sentiment towards Russia as their extended families still reside there. The split in the population is one of the internal problems faced by the Ukrainian government. Two, dealing with the oligarchs. They are a set of people present inside Ukraine with the ability to manipulate the operation of the government using their resources. Although the President has his anti-oligarch legislation on the agenda for this year, with the return of former President Petro Poroshenko, a pro-oligarch, the stakes for the internal clash are high.
Ukraine’s Ambitions
First, territory as a priority. The Kremlin's policy has alienated Ukraine in the last eight years since the annexing of Crimea in 2014 and its involvement in the Donbas conflict. Therefore, the pro-west approach of the Ukrainian leader is to shield itself from Russia’s geopolitical dreams and achieve territorial integrity.
Second, democratic ambition. Ukraine’s strategy to adopt democracy is to attract the west for support, and it is to become part of the NATO and the EU. Thereby, it will be able to strengthen and stabilize, politically, economically and mainly in terms of Security. In addition, it can position itself as a threat to Russia and by achieving democracy, it can prevent losing its territory.
References:
“Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments,” BBC, 21 January 2022
Lally Weymouth, “Volodymyr Zelensky: ‘Everyone will lose’ if Russia invades Ukraine,” The Washington Post, 21 January 2022
“Secretary Antony J. Blinken To Mission Ukraine Staff - United States Department of State,” U.S Department of State, 19 January 2022
Paul Adams, “Ukrainians wait as Russia faces off with the West,” BBC, 12 January 2022
IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan
SERBIA
Belgrade cancels lithium mining plans
On 20 January, Prime Minister Ana Brnabić announced the cancellation of the Rio Tinto lithium mine plans after weeks of protests. Brnabić said: "We have fulfilled all the demands from the environmental protests and have put an end to Rio Tinto in the Republic of Serbia." The protestors had taken to the streets as they were concerned about the mine’s environmental ramifications in the lithium-rich western Serbian region. The move has also been influenced by the souring diplomatic ties between Belgrade and Canberra over the deportation of tennis player Novak Djokovic from Australia. The country might face a legal challenge from the company as it stated: "Rio Tinto is reviewing the legal basis of this decision and the implications for our activities and our people in Serbia." ("Serbia scraps plans for Rio Tinto lithium mine after protests," The Guardian, 20 January 2022; "'It's over': months of protests force Serbian government to scrap planned lithium mine," Euronews, 20 January 2022)
REGIONAL
EU Parliament to regulate live animal transports within and out of the EU
On 20 January, the EU Parliament ruled to regulate live animal transportation within the EU and non-EU states. The regulations come after the EU Parliament's fact-finding committee presented the results of an investigation held in December 2021 regarding the violations of the current rules on transporting live animals. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "The committee had called for transport times to be limited to eight hours by road and air and 24 hours by sea for animals intended for slaughter. This has been approved with exceptions." At the same time, a general ban on the transport of pregnant animals and newly born animals has not been accepted. But, animal rights organizations have been calling for a ban on the export of live animals outside the EU, citing unprofessional slaughtering of animals, which could have been an offense in the region. (Max Zander, "EU parliament restricts live animal transports," Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022)
COVID-19
Austria: Vaccine mandate passed by Parliament
On 20 January, Austria became the first EU country to legislate a vaccine mandate. The law which will come into effect in February, saw the Austrian parliament successfully passing it. The mandate requires all adults to be inoculated against COVID-19. Those denying the vaccinations will be fined up to EUR 3,600 from mid-March. Pregnant women and individuals with health conditions hindering them from being vaccinated will be excused from the mandate and the subsequent fine. Chancellor Karl Nehammer commented on the mandate: “Vaccination is an opportunity for our society to achieve lasting and continuous freedom, because the virus cannot restrict us any further.” (“Coronavirus digest: Austria becomes first EU country to pass vaccine mandate,” Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022; “Coronavirus: Austrian parliament approves mandatory vaccination order,” BBC, 21 January 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
UN General Assembly adopts resolution against Holocaust denial
On 20 January, The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution proposed by Israeli and German ambassadors that rejected and condemned any denial of the Holocaust. German ambassador to Israel Susanne Wasum-Rainer and the Israeli ambassador to Germany Jeremy Issacharaoff published a joint appeal to coincide it with the 80th anniversary of the Wannsee Conference. They said: "This resolution is meant to be a sign of hope and inspiration for all states and societies that stand up for diversity and tolerance, strive for reconciliation and understand that remembering the Holocaust is essential to prevent such crimes from happening again." The 193-member assembly, except Iran, agreed to the proposal without holding a vote. Germany’s UN Ambassador Antje Leendertse also mentioned how the General Assembly was revoking the idea of a strong message against the denial or distortion of historical facts as this could lead to harmful consequences and risk of repetition. ("UN General Assembly adopts German-Israeli proposal against Holocaust denial," Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022)
Ukraine: Sanctions imposed on four Ukrainians by the US Treasury
On 20 January, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on four Ukrainian citizens for associating with Russia in destabilizing the country. The individuals targeted involve two current members of the Ukrainian parliament — Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn — and two former officials — Volodymyr Oliynyk and Vladimir Sivkovich. The Treasury released a statement, saying: “Russia has directed its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force.” The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, visiting Berlin, commented on the sanctions: “This action is intended to target, highlight, and undercut Russia's ongoing destabilization effort in Ukraine.” (“US imposes sanctions on four Ukrainians over Russia links,” Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022; Julain Borger, Luke Harding and Andrew Roth, “US accuses Russia of conspiring to take over Ukraine government,” The Guardian, 20 January 2022)
Ukraine: Zekenskyy responds to Biden’s comment on “minor incursion”
On 20 January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to US President Joe Biden’s statement on Russia conducting a “minor incursion” into the country. Zelenskyy took to Twitter and tweeted: “There are no minor incursions. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones." Later, in an attempt to provide clarity on the issue, Biden stated: “If any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion.” (“Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments,” BBC, 20 January 2022; “US imposes sanctions on four Ukrainians over Russia links,” Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022)
France: Parliament denounces genocide by China against Uyghur muslims
On 20 January, the French parliament passed a resolution that officially recognized China's treatment of Uyghurs as genocide. The resolution by the National Assembly read: "... officially recognises the violence perpetrated by the People's Republic of China against the Uyghurs as constituting crimes against humanity and genocide." The non-binding resolution also calls on the French government to protect the interests of the minority group in China and to take "the necessary measures within the international community and in its foreign policy towards the People's Republic of China." Socialist Party Chief Olivier Faure commented on China and the regime's atrocities against the Uyghurs and that Paris should refuse to submit to the curtailment of violations through propaganda by the country. Meanwhile, the EU Parliament had condemned the human rights violations in June 2021. ("French lawmakers officially recognise China's treatment of Uyghurs as 'genocide'," France24, 20 January 2022; "French MPs officially recognise China's treatment of Uyghurs as 'genocide'," Euronews, 20 January 2022)